Aurora - 30 Minute Forecast | NOAA (2024)

FAQs

How to read the aurora 30 minute forecast? ›

The brightness and location of the aurora is typically shown as a green oval centered on Earth's magnetic pole. The green ovals turn red when the aurora is forecasted to be more intense. The sunlit side of Earth is indicated by the lighter blue of the ocean and the lighter color of the continents.

Glendale app is the world's most accurate aurora app. It needs to use your location to determine which country & timezone you are in, to provide accurate local times and aurora forecasts. Your device will ask for permission to use your location and you must select 'allow always' when asked.

The aurora forecast can be quite accurate. Technology allows us to monitor the weather forecast and check solar and geomagnetic activity. But at the end of the day, the aurora forecast is only a prediction. We can never fully know when the northern lights will appear.

November through to February offer the darkest skies and longer evenings for maximum sky-gazing. The strongest lights tend to appear between 9pm and 2am, though the best sightings often occur between 11pm and midnight.

Kp 4 – Active – Bright, constant and dynamic northern lights visible. More colours start to appear. Kp 5 – Minor storm – Bright, constant and colourful aurora display, red and purple colours appear. Aurora coronae likely. Kp 6 – Moderate storm – Bright, dynamic and colourful aurora display.

The northern lights forecast typically provides information on the expected aurora activity level, often on a scale of 0 to 9 or similar, making it easy to decipher. Higher values indicate stronger geomagnetic storms and a greater likelihood of visible northern lights at lower latitudes.

Thus, your distance from the oval can also vary greatly depending on the activity, making it nearly impossible to determine a 'best time of night'. As a rule of thumb, you will have the highest probability to see aurora around local solar midnight (± 2 hours) as you rotate 'inside/near' the oval.

So you can plan your Northern Lights trip ahead of up to 27 days thanks to these prediction models. The 27-day Aurora Forecast gives a single value for each day. It describes how intense the Aurora might be, ranging from 0 (no aurora) to 9 (very intense).

My Aurora Forecast is the best app for seeing the Northern Lights. Built with a sleek dark design, it appeals to both tourists and serious aurora watchers by telling you what you want to know. With this app, you'll be seeing the Northern Lights in no time.

How often does the aurora forecast change? ›

Sunspot activity, and hence auroral activity, tends to peak every 11 years. Sunspots produce solar flares and coronal mass ejections, which create the geomagnetic storms here on Earth that cause the aurora to appear.

NOAA's OVATION Map

It shows a 30-minute aurora forecast for the Northern and Southern hemispheres. The map is updated daily around midnight (UTC). It's a good sign if you see thick areas of light yellow, orange or red on the OVATION Map.

Visit Iceland (where northern lights are visible more frequently) recommends adjusting your phone's settings to get the best shots. Look for something like “night mode” or another way to lengthen the camera's exposure to help capture more light. Using a tripod can also help keep your hands steady.

Aurora forecast activity is currently low. Weather permitting, limited northern lights displays could be visible directly overhead in some northern communities and possibly visible low on the horizon from slightly lower northern latitudes.

Scientists use satellites to measure the speed and density of the solar wind, and when the conditions are right, they can predict when the Northern Lights will occur.

When the north-south direction of IMF flips south, the magnetic field lines connect to the earth's magnetosphere which faces north. A rift opens that allows the solar wind to pour into our magnetosphere. Bz becomes negative, for example –10nT, which is a good sign that auroras will start to appear.

Take a look at this scale to size up your chances of seeing the Northern Lights: 0-2: Low, almost no activity. Even with such a forecast, it's still worth heading out if the sky is clear. 2-3: Moderate activity, but there are good chances to catch a glimpse of the aurora. This is the most common forecast.

The KP index is one of the most known data for aurora. Related to the disturbance in the Earth's Magnetic field, it expresses the scale of activity on a level from 0 to 9. The higher it gets, the more chance you will see the Northern Lights far from the center of the Pole.

No one knows precisely when an aurora might occur. Space weather maps and predictions are helpful, but ultimately the sun calls the show. There are long-range forecasts of auroras, but dedicated chasers often hang in suspense until just a few days before its stage call.